Crypto Bull Market Over?: In early 2024, a powerful rally swept through the cryptocurrency market, sparking speculation that the cycle top might arrive ahead of schedule. Some analysts clung to the belief that the traditional crypto cycle would unfold as it always had, with the best gains still on the horizon. Fast forward to 2025, and the market has taken a downturn, leading some to predict a delayed peak, while others insist the top is already behind us, with tougher times ahead. So, where exactly are we in this crypto cycle? Has the peak come and gone, or is it still looming? In this review, we’ll dig into these questions and shed light on the hard truth.
Crypto Bull Market Over? The Four-Year Crypto Cycle: A Primer
Let’s start with the basics to ensure we’re all aligned. The crypto market has historically followed a four-year cycle, characterized by a bull market lasting roughly one to two years, followed by a bear market spanning two to three years. A key driver on the crypto side is the Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every four years and halves the supply of newly minted BTC. Assuming demand holds steady, this supply cut often pushes Bitcoin’s price upward. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, setting the stage for what could be the cycle’s most explosive phase.
As Bitcoin’s price climbs, large holders—commonly known as “whales”—often redirect some of their gains into altcoins, chasing higher returns. In past cycles, this meant selling BTC outright. Today, however, many whales borrow against their Bitcoin rather than parting with it, preserving their “sats” (short for satoshis, the smallest BTC unit). Historically, this rotation into altcoins kicks off near the cycle’s end, during the speculative “blow-off top” phase, typically 12 to 18 months after a halving. With April 2024 in the rearview, we may be nearing that pivotal moment.
Liquidity and the Macro Perspective
On the macroeconomic front, the four-year cycle aligns with the global liquidity cycle, driven by debt refinancing. Individuals and institutions face hefty debts that need refinancing every four to five years, prompting governments and central banks to pump liquidity into the system. According to Michael Howell, a leading expert on global liquidity, this trend should persist until late 2025. However, liquidity isn’t a one-way street—it ebbs and flows in the short term due to taxes, central bank policies, and other factors. Howell’s research also notes that crypto prices can trail liquidity shifts by one to two months, offering a possible explanation for the recent market dip.
Last autumn (2024), a liquidity drain hit, but it hasn’t derailed the broader upward trend projected through 2025. This suggests that assets, including cryptocurrencies, should generally rise over this period. The total crypto market cap supports this, having climbed steadily since late 2022—the low point of the last four-year crypto and liquidity cycles. This alignment hints that the cycle top could land within the next six to eight months.
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: A Growing Divide
Despite this optimism, not all cryptos are riding the same wave. Bitcoin and a few standout altcoins have fueled most of the market cap’s growth, while many altcoins have languished, trading sideways for over a year or sliding to new lows. This split has fueled heated debates about the cycle’s status. Focus on Bitcoin, and the cycle looks textbook; zoom in on altcoins, and it feels stalled—or finished. Some now argue Bitcoin has “decoupled” from the altcoin pack, a trend evident over the past year that raises the question: is this cycle truly different?
Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows a clear bullish uptrend. After nearly a year of sideways trading, it broke out in November 2024, a move still gaining steam. Contrast this with the altcoin market cap (excluding Bitcoin), where most coins are stuck in ranges, mirroring Bitcoin’s pre-breakout phase. Yet, altcoins aren’t a monolith: some, like Solana (SOL), hover in higher ranges—SOL hit an all-time high this year but has since stabilized since February 2024. Ethereum (ETH) occupies a middle tier, yet to reclaim its peak, lingering in a range since late 2023. Others, like Aptos (APT), launched in late 2022, sit at the lower end, with some altcoins even breaking below their ranges.
This stagnation has frustrated long-term holders and soured those who bought at range highs. Still, such behavior isn’t abnormal—altcoins often consolidate before big moves, just as Bitcoin did in 2024. Why, then, are some altcoins thriving while most falter?
Market Structure Shifts and Retail Behavior
In past cycles, centralized exchanges didn’t demand Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, making altcoin access a breeze for retail investors. This cycle, KYC is ubiquitous, and regulatory crackdowns have choked crypto-to-fiat pathways. Meanwhile, crypto wallets and decentralized protocols have leaped forward in usability, skipping KYC entirely and even adding fiat ramps. Evidence? Phantom wallet recently outpaced Coinbase in app store rankings, signaling a retail shift. Users now favor fast, cheap blockchains like Solana, where meme coin mania thrived until recently, over sluggish, costly alternatives.
Older altcoins like XRP enjoy wide availability alongside Bitcoin, bolstered by retail chatter on platforms like TikTok rather than data hubs like CoinMarketCap. Yet, bigger changes loom: spot altcoin ETFs, stablecoin rules, and clearer regulations could bridge traditional finance (TradFi) and Web2 into crypto, from tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to NFT avatars.
The Catch: Structure Isn’t Enough
Here’s the rub—market structure upgrades don’t guarantee cash flow. Spot Ethereum ETFs, approved in July 2024, promised an ETH price surge but delivered scant inflows. This underscores why Bitcoin outpaces altcoins: structural hurdles have clogged altcoin funding channels. Even if the SEC greenlit ETFs for every altcoin tomorrow, they’d likely mirror Ethereum’s lukewarm reception. Why? Investors—retail and institutional—crave returns but shy away from risk. Uncertainty over Trump’s policies has them on the sidelines, funneling liquidity into safe-haven U.S. bonds instead, pushing yields down and aligning with the administration’s goals.
Three Rays of Hope
Amid the gloom, three positives shine:
- Pro-Crypto Moves: Trump’s team and new regulators are fast-tracking market reforms, like bank-based crypto buys, priming the pump for when confidence returns.
- Cycle Resilience: Bearish macros could linger months without breaking the four-year cycle, where altcoins historically soar 12–18 months post-halving.
- Pattern Persistence: No clear evidence suggests this cycle differs. Despite altcoin lags last autumn (2024), structural fixes are nearing, just as the bullish phase looms.
In 2017, the Fed hiked rates and cut its balance sheet, yet altcoins boomed. Today’s cycle feels on track—altcoins may yet catch Bitcoin.
The Missing Spark: Catalysts
What’s needed? A catalyst. MicroStrategy’s BTC buys ignited the last bull run; this time, a nation or central bank holding Bitcoin could do it. Trump’s teased crypto reserve, using seized assets, briefly spiked markets, though expectations outpace reality. Other triggers loom: foreign banks eyeing BTC, BlackRock tokenizing on Ethereum, or PayPal boosting PYUSD on Solana. XRP’s ETF and sidechain could unleash liquidity. Each crypto has its spark—when ignited, liquidity could cascade, lifting quality altcoins with strong fundamentals into parabolic rallies.
Final Thoughts: Same Cycle, Different Day?
Is this time different? Not yet—it’s too early to tell, with the bullish phase still ahead. Price dips breed bearish tales, but Blockworks’ Jason Janowitz nails it:
“Think the cycle’s done? Trump won’t juice this market? Pro-crypto rules won’t matter? Macro gloom makes you clever? Don’t see banks and fintechs piling in? Don’t believe?”
Do you? The truth awaits.